You Gotta Believe!
10-22-2007
The Boston Globe’s James Pindell gets Chris Dodd to reveal his path to the Democratic presidential nomination…a fourth place finish in Iowa. Here is what Pindell tells us over at The Primary Source:
 
As for his presidential campaign, Dodd said he does [have] a chance to be the nominee. Under his calculation the three top-tier candidates have to win Iowa, but only one can. So besides the winner the second big story of the night is the candidate who comes in fourth, something he is vying to be.  Dodd says that without doing well in Iowa he can't be a player in New Hampshire and beyond.
 
Chris Dodd has been a passionate campaigner throughout this presidential cycle, and he appears to genuinely appreciate the importance of retail politics to New Hampshire’s political traditions. But it is not clear to me that New Hampshire voters will see a fourth place finish in Iowa as evidence of newfound viability. This logic (and Dodd is not the first to float it) suggests that the second and third place campaigns in Iowa will be so devastated, that they will no longer be competitive in New Hampshire, leaving the fourth place finisher as the chief rival to the frontrunner.
 
Although it is possible that a failure to win in Iowa may hamstring one of the top three campaigns, it is much less likely that both the second and third place finishers would be undone, making one of those candidates, rather than Dodd in fourth, the likely alternative to the frontrunner.


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