You Can Say That Again
Well, the armies of campaign staffers have dispersed, and the last satellite truck has headed out on the interstate. All that is left are memories and a whole lot of muddy campaign signs. If you are looking for analysis of last night’s primary results, my appearance this morning on New Hampshire Public Radio’s The Exchange will give you a good sense of my initial reaction to the Clinton and McCain victories. You can listen to the show at your leisure here. I will be back up tomorrow with new content for you.


Posted On: 01-09-2008 18:34:58 by Another Dean in IL
What happened to Senator Obama's 8-14 point lead? I can't buy any of the theories about Granite state collusion to reject the pundits, Hillary's teary eyed moment, etc. They just don't explain a 11-14 point turnaround in 24 hours. The only explanation that makes sense is that voters were duped by the polls. A large contingent of Obama supporters were duped to believe his victory was a foregone, slam dunk so they voted for McCain, and in some cases Edwards. Being convinced Obama did not need their support to easliy defeat Clinton, they went out and voted for sentimental favorite John McCain, either because they like him or because they have a strong dislike for Mitt Romney. This impact was specifically true for independent male voters. However, I am convinced that the anti-Romney vote for McCain included a significant number of Democrats, not just independents. Democrat or Independent, either way they would have voted for Obama if it looked close. Even longtime Clinton insiders admitted to Howard Fineman that Hillary ran into an unstoppable movement and would lose big. Senator Obama had bigger, more enthusiastic crowds, and a better on ground operation. He simply had more support than Hillary but lost because many of his supporters were fooled by the polls and cast the vote they thought would most favorably impact the primary. This theory was hinted at by Jonathan Alter on (although he did not give it enough weight versus other theories).

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